(Image from www.crash.net to illustrate riders who are not Stoner or Lorenzo.)
(I wrote this after the 2nd race at Jerez, but the 3rd race at Estoril helps my conclusion.)
It’s early in the season, but I’m going to stick my neck on the line a bit and predict that only Casey Stoner and Jorge Lorenzo will win races regularly, and they also will spend the most time in the top 2 or 3 positions all year. Daniel Pedrosa will be just behind them. You might see a few people running in the top 3 once in a while that don’t “belong” there such as Nicky Hayden, Valentino Rossi, Cal Crutchlow, Ben Spies, or Andrea Dovizioso, but they won’t be there regularly. It gives me no pleasure to say this. Actually, it’s quite annoying. I was hoping for better MotoGP racing.
Am I qualified to say this? I don’t know. See note [*]
Lorenzo and Stoner have similar backgrounds. Both came through 125 and 250 two stroke racing. Both were well known for crashing a lot, Lorenzo especially during his early MotoGP career. But Stoner also had his fair share. And both are not crashing much anymore, if at all, while mostly running at the front. I think this last point about crashing is particularly significant.
Valentino Rossi and Pedrosa could almost be considered part of this “club”. Rossi won regularly when he was on the Yamaha, but he was having trouble with Lorenzo toward the end of his Yamaha run. Pedrosa can win once in a while, but it’s increasingly looking more like a statistical anomaly. And then we had Ben Spies and Andrea Dovizioso win recently, but those are definitely anomalies.
Ironically, Rossi’s current situation tends to influence me to favor Stoner over Lorenzo. Rossi and Stoner are the only riders in recent years to switch from one factory bike to another. Stoner was able to win regularly on 2 different bikes, and nobody else has in the last 5 years or so, or since the control tire rule was implemented. Rossi’s switch to Ducati with misearable results illustrates this point quite vividly. Stoner seems to have some extra ability to adapt that Lorenzo might have but hasn’t been able to prove yet, and Rossi clearly doesn’t have in the current control tire era.
So, why are Stoner and Lorenzo my picks to be at the front? The answer must be that they are the only ones who understand their respective motorcycle/tire/electronics combinations well enough to ride them at the limit for more time than the rest. And it probably had a lot to do with their propensity for crashing earlier in the control tire era. They were the only ones willing to push the motorcycles, tires, and electronics right to the ragged edge and beyond in order to understand their motorcycles. I think they were both able to do this because they both have an intense belief in their own abilities. A crash was perfectly acceptable to them because they know it wasn’t their fault. It seems like the rest of the riders just aren’t willing to go this far (crash regularly) in order to understand the motorcycles for all kinds of good reasons: They don’t want to end their careers, they don’t want to be dismissed from their teams for crashing too much, they don’t want to miss races for being hurt, etc. These are the same things going through 99.9% of all other motorcycle roadracers heads, at least the ones older than about 19 or 20.
Marco Simoncelli might have been on his way to join the Stoner and Lorenzo club. His big problem was that he had no problem putting other riders’ safety at risk for his own gains, which is not a good way to win favor in motorcycle roadracing. But he seemed to be following the same path as Stoner and Lorenzo: He was crashing a lot, and then gradually going faster and faster without crashing as much. He also seemed to have a similar intense belief in his own abilities.
Based on my observations, it seems that Yamaha and Honda are the only teams who have been able to develop motorcycles and electronics to work with the latest Bridgestone control tires. Ducati hasn’t been able to do it (without Stoner riding), and Suzuki and Kawasaki just plain gave up trying.
I can’t tell if Lorenzo and Stoner are why Yamaha and Honda are so far ahead, or if Lorenzo and Stoner are so far ahead because of Yamaha and Honda. It seems to be a chicken and egg problem. We don’t have any other riders winning regularly to provide context.
Is this what we really want from MotoGP racing? It’s been twisted so severely that only 2 riders and bikes really have a shot at winning regularly. Do we really want to force other riders in to crashing regularly in order to understand their motorcyles? Does this need to be the price to pay in order to watch the “ultimate” racing motorcylces on the track? There must be a better way… …(World Superbike, Moto2, British Superbike)
In my opinion, the first step is probably to switch control tire manufacturers. Or possibly allow tire competition again. Then after that there is probably some room for improvement by controlling which electronics are allowed and which aren’t in some fashion. It could probably be controlled relatively well with inspections and precise analysis of engine sound on the track. Or control electronics as British Superbike has.
Something must be done to improve the show. I’m becoming dis-interested in a big hurry. And meanwhile, there are other series which are exciting as can be (alluded to earlier). Fix it Dorna and manufacturers!
[*]Note: I’ve been a keen motorcycle roadracing observer in the last 2 decades. I’m a former expert club racer so I have some rudimentary understanding of how motorcycles work. And I’m sort of a natural statistician. I don’t always come to the same conclusions as others based on observed data, I’ll freely admit. I can’t hope to understand all of the complex interactions occurring in MotoGP racing. Can anyone?
MotoGP is on from LeMans, France this Sunday May 20th. We’ll be watching it at O’Malley’s at noon as usual.
World Superbike is on again this Sunday, this time from Donington Park, England. This is one of the best tracks for motorcycle racing in the world in my opinion, there are so many good places to pass. Kelly and I went there in 2000 to watch a British superbike race. This was the year that Steve Hislop put in a quicker qualifying lap on his Ducati 996 for the WSB race than Valentino Rossi did for his pole lap on the Honda NSR500. Any bike which is set up well with a confident rider can go fast, so it’s hard to predict the result.
After months of waiting since the 1199 Panigale was announced, it’s finally here!
World Superbike is on this Sunday April 22nd from Assen, The Netherlands. This is a track Ducatis have usually done well at, and was a favorite of 4 time WSBK champion Carl Fogarty.
The April 2012 club meeting is this Wednesday the 11th at 6:30 PM. 
The first MotoGP race of the 2012 season is at Losail, Qatar this Easter Sunday, April 8th.
WSBK is back to Europe at Imola, Italy this weekend. Carlos Checa on the Ducati 1198 and Max Biaggi on the Aprilia won the races in Australia and are expected to fight for the championship.
